H-1B lottery odds by wage level: the weighted selection (2027)
DHS estimated that with the weighted lottery a person has about a 15.29% chance at Level I, 30.58% at Level II, 45.87% at Level III and 61.16% at Level IV, against 29.59% for everyone in a random lottery (final rule of 29 December 2025, read on 7 November 2026). In the first weighted lottery, for FY 2027, Levels III and IV got about 46.3% of selections and Level I 17.8% (Proclamation of 18 September 2026).
Estimated chance of selection: I 15.29% · II 30.58% · III 45.87% · IV 61.16%
Sources: Federal Register, Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions (final rule, 90 FR 60864, 29 December 2025); Federal Register, Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers (proclamation, 91 FR 60497, 23 September 2026). Read on 7 November 2026. U.S. government data, public domain.
Not legal or immigration advice. This page reports the Department of Labor wage file and the DHS rule as we read them. The level on a registration also depends on the job duties, the SOC code and the place of work chosen for the job, and the employer attests to it. Check with USCIS and the Department of Labor, and ask an immigration lawyer about your own case.
How DHS computed the odds
| Wage level | Entries in the lottery | People assumed by DHS | Chance, random lottery | Chance, weighted lottery (DHS) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Level I | 1 | 89,911 | 29.59% | 15.29% |
| Level II | 2 | 177,216 | 29.59% | 30.58% |
| Level III | 3 | 37,928 | 29.59% | 45.87% |
| Level IV | 4 | 15,657 | 29.59% | 61.16% |
94,900 selections ÷ (89,911 × 1 + 177,216 × 2 + 37,928 × 3 + 15,657 × 4 = 620,755 entries) = 15.29% for one entry. Level II is twice that, Level III three times and Level IV four times: DHS writes “Level II, 30.58% = (probability of being selected for level I, 15.29%) x 2. Level III, 45.87% = 15.29% x 3. Level IV, 61.16% = 15.29% x 4.” This simple calculation is close to, but not the same as, the real draw: “Since unique beneficiaries can be selected only once, the selection process is conducted without replacement.”
The assumed pool is 320,711 people (the four DHS counts add up to 320,712 because of rounding): 28% at Level I, 55% at Level II, 12% at Level III and 5% at Level IV, from petitions of FY 2020 to FY 2024. If more people register at Levels III and IV, every chance goes down. DHS combined the regular cap and the master's cap in this estimate.
Source: Federal Register, Weighted Selection Process for Registrants and Petitioners Seeking To File Cap-Subject H-1B Petitions (final rule, 90 FR 60864, 29 December 2025). Read on 7 November 2026. U.S. government data, public domain.
The first weighted lottery (FY 2027)
USCIS has not published selection rates by level in the sources we read. The proclamation of 18 September 2026 gives two figures: “Job offers with wages corresponding to the two highest wage levels accounted for approximately 46.3 percent of H–1B registration selections while those corresponding with the lowest wage level accounted for only 17.8 percent.” It also reports “registrations for beneficiaries with at least a U.S. Master’s degree rising from 45.1 percent of total registrants for FY 2026 to 66.1 percent for FY 2027”.
Source: Federal Register, Restriction on Entry of Certain Nonimmigrant Workers (proclamation, 91 FR 60497, 23 September 2026). Read on 7 November 2026. U.S. government data, public domain.
Which level is your salary?
The level comes from the Department of Labor wage file for the job's occupation and area: H-1B wage level calculator (299 occupations, 530 areas). For example, for software developers, Level II starts at $187,075 a year in San Jose, CA and at $116,896 in Dallas, TX.
In force or proposed
| Change | Status | Detail | Federal Register |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weighted lottery by wage level (1 to 4 entries) | In force | since 27 February 2026; used for the FY 2027 registration | 90 FR 60864 |
| $100,000 payment for certain H-1B petitions | In force | paid with the employer's petition for new H-1B workers outside the United States: restriction on entry of Proclamation 10973 of 19 September 2025, extended until 21 September 2027; DHS can exempt an individual, all workers of a company or all workers in an industry when it finds their hiring “is in the national interest” | 91 FR 60497 |
| $103,265 fee on H-1B cap-subject petitions | Proposal | not in force; comments closed on 24 September 2026 | 91 FR 54817 |
| Higher OEWS wage levels (DOL) | Proposal | Level I from the 17th to the 34th percentile, II 34th to 52nd, III 50th to 70th, IV 67th to 88th; not in force; comments closed on 26 May 2026 | 91 FR 15454 |
Questions people ask
What are the H-1B lottery odds in 2027?
Nobody knows them before the registration closes: they depend on how many people register at each level. DHS estimated 15.29% at Level I, 30.58% at Level II, 45.87% at Level III and 61.16% at Level IV for a pool with its FY 2020–2024 assumptions.
Do H-1B lottery chances depend on the wage level?
Yes, since the FY 2027 registration. Each person is entered once at Level I, twice at Level II, three times at Level III and four times at Level IV, so a Level IV registration has about four times the chance of a Level I one when few people are selected.
Do people with a US master's degree still have better odds?
Yes. The two-step selection stays: “USCIS first selects from a pool of all unique beneficiaries, including those eligible for the advanced degree exemption. USCIS then selects from the remaining unique beneficiaries a sufficient number projected as needed to reach the advanced degree exemption.” DHS wrote: “The final rule will maintain this two-stage selection process to keep a higher chance of beneficiaries with a qualifying U.S. master’s degree or higher of being selected.” The weighting applies in both steps: “USCIS will weight each unique beneficiary as described in paragraph (h)(8)(iii)(A)(4)(ii) of this section and randomly select the number of unique beneficiaries deemed necessary to meet the H–1B advanced degree exemption numerical limitation”.
What were the H-1B lottery 2027 results by wage level?
For FY 2027 the proclamation of 18 September 2026 says: “Job offers with wages corresponding to the two highest wage levels accounted for approximately 46.3 percent of H–1B registration selections while those corresponding with the lowest wage level accounted for only 17.8 percent.” It also says that registrations for people with at least a US master's degree rose from 45.1% of registrants for FY 2026 to 66.1% for FY 2027.